Automotive Industry Report Vol.18 (published by i-AUC)

Car distribution trends.


While writing this manuscript, the movement toward greenhouse gas reduction is accelerating all over the world, such as the climate change summit held at the request of President Biden. I will. This time, I cannot deny the feeling that this movement will affect the Japanese automobile industry in which we live, but I would like to reconsider.


This global movement started with the "Kyoto Protocol" adopted at the 1997 conference (COP3) held in Kyoto, but in short, people's lives and the natural environment. The aim is to reduce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, which have an adverse effect on the border (global warming), worldwide. During this time, the Paris Agreement The new administration of Biden is active in climate change diplomacy, such as returning to the fixed (COP21), and is progressing rapidly due to the conflict of dispatching to the United States and China. Whether it stimulated me Apart from that, Prime Minister Suga also declared in his statement of belief that "a decarbonized society will be realized by 2050." That's not a bad thing, but lately, what is worrisome is that the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) that emits greenhouse gases centered on carbon dioxide is the "bad guy", and the electric vehicle (EV) that emits zero emissions is "justice". It's coming, and even now, there is a tendency to say that all cars should be EVs.


Certainly, in operation, ICE is emitted and EV is not emitted, but LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) From the point of view, in short, in the series of cycles from EV production to dismantling, the current situation In Japan, it depends on thermal power generation (see table), so even if it is an EV, in the process, It emits greenhouse gases. If this is cleared, Japan's energy policy We have to change from the ground up. In France, where renewable energy and nuclear power are widespread, It is possible to move the factory base to Canada, but it will shake the foundation of Japan's core industry. Therefore, it is not realistic.


The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) also develops charging infrastructure and power during peak hours. It is pointed out that there are a lot of problems such as shortages, but still an 80% reduction by 2050. I am trying to reduce it. These include hybrid vehicles (HVs), but are currently global. There are many countries that do not consider HVs to be next-generation vehicles, and how to deal with that point? Also, regarding mini vehicles, which account for 40% of domestic sales, how are they going, even though HV conversion is not progressing? The issue remains whether to handle it.


In any case, the trend toward EV is currently increasing as the fastest way to realize a decarbonized society. But don't be fooled by it.


Recently, we often see the words carbon neutral and carbon free as synonyms for decarbonization. The implication is the emission of carbon dioxide It refers to a state where output and absorption are plus or minus zero, but in general, humans emit carbon dioxide by breathing every day, and factories and automobiles It is easy to imagine that carbon dioxide is emitted from such sources, but when it comes to absorption, plants absorb carbon dioxide during photosynthesis, and oxygen is absorbed. I can only get the image of discharging. With that in mind, we can recognize that the amount of emissions is overwhelmingly large and it is not easy to achieve zero.


Used car distribution


Since we covered global warming countermeasures that are accelerating worldwide in the previous section, how will the distribution of used cars change in the future as a result of these efforts? I would like to think macroscopically this time.


In this series of efforts, the Japanese government has announced that it will ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) by 2035. 5 more in Tokyo The year is ahead of schedule until 2030. The simple question here is, "Is the sale of used car ICEs prohibited?" Regarding used cars, respectively I can't find any specific description. New cars before 2035 (before 2030 in Tokyo) are not covered, so can I sell used cars? But the purpose is warm As far as the reduction of room effect gas is concerned, I don't think that "used cars are an exception". However, as a real problem, as shown in the attached table, next-generation automatic as of 2019 The ratio of the number of cars owned, including HV cars, is only 14.3%.


Suppose that automobile manufacturers have made the utmost efforts toward electrification in the future. However, it is impossible to account for even the majority of the number of vehicles owned by 2035, let alone 2030, and at least 40 million ICEs will be in the stage of 2035. It is thought to be left behind. I don't think it will be realistic that 40 million units should not be distributed, so it is thought that some kind of remedy will be issued. However, if the ultimate goal is to make a car that does not emit greenhouse gases, it will inevitably require an exit strategy for ICE.


For example, even if it is said that electrification will progress worldwide, developed countries will take the lead, and in Africa, South America, the Middle East and parts of Asia, ICE will be the mainstay during this century. is. In that sense, it is still the case today, but Japanese ICE used cars are popular and demand can be expected in the future, so it is the best exit strategy for this problem. Isn't it? Specifically, like the old replacement system introduced in Taiwan, by purchasing a new next-generation car and exporting the car (ICE) that was on it until then. It is conceivable to introduce a system that allows you to obtain a subsidy (in the case of Taiwan, a subsidy of about 190,000 yen is provided for 50,000 Taiwan yen per vehicle).


On the other hand, light vehicles are unpopular in exports and are hybrid. The overwhelming majority of people left behind are mini vehicles, as they are not becoming more popular. Is expected to be. In the process of processing, this step by step Is a high carbon dioxide emission from the concept of carbon neutrality Revitalization of used car distribution of light vehicles from the Greater Tokyo Area to few regions There is likely to be.


These exit strategies are unknown, but in the future, we will work on this. In the process, it is not always possible for some exit strategy to materialize. No doubt, I think there is a big chance lurking there.


Once, ahead of the country, the driving of diesel vehicles that did not meet the PM emission standards of the ordinance was banned in all areas of Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama. With the introduction of this regulation, a large number of diesel vehicles in the metropolitan area have flowed out to rural areas, and the distribution of used commercial vehicles has been activated. Regulation There are some formats that will decline due to the introduction of, but there are also formats that will expand, so it is important to firmly identify them.


What's going on with used car exports


In the long history of used car exports, settlement troubles between dealers have occurred not a little because of their global business. However, in recent years, due to the spread of export sites as a result, there are many troubles between consumers and vendors in the destination country. This is a terrible situation that undermines the global credibility of Japan's used car exports. Which specifically I would like to introduce this time whether such troubles are occurring.


We interviewed Hiroshi Sato, Managing Director of Japan Used Car Export Industry Cooperative (hereinafter abbreviated as JUMVEA) and Yutaka Shioda, Managing Director, who are currently receiving consultations from all over the world. Surprisingly, JUMVEA receives nearly 50 consultations every day. The content of the consultation is almost the same, I bought the vehicle through the export site and paid the price, but the vehicle did not arrive forever, and even if I offered to cancel, I would not be able to respond at all. It is a thing. However, it does not mean that the business operator has disappeared, but it is still in business and I can contact you, but each time I am "repairing" or "incomplete documents" There was only an excuse, and he said that he had no intention of exporting from the beginning, and conversely, if the repair cost was higher than expected, he was charged for additional money and he could not see any sincerity.


When I confirmed why I bought it from that vendor, I found that "Immaculate (excellent) used cars are in phase. It was about 30% to 40% cheaper than the venue, "he said in the same way. According to Managing Director Shioda, Generally, I don't use such expressions for used cars, which are 5 to 6 years old, but I have a question. When combined, it seems that the trader at the top of the opening attracts with that one word. In addition, "these Cars are immaculate and cheap, so there are quite a lot of inquiries, but I'll give you the full price right away If you do, I'll give it to you. " Exactly It is a common scam technique in every country in the world.


When I asked if I didn't think it was strange in advance, "I've been trying my best to find it, so I think it paid off and I was lucky. It seems to say, "Oreore fraud is the same, but if you think calmly, you can judge that it is strange. Even so, it is common not only in Japan but also in the world that you can not make a calm judgment on the spot.


I'm wondering what happens to consumers in the world who have been deceived in this way. At present, many seem to be crying and falling asleep. To file a criminal accusation against such a bad guy, However, even if I file a civil lawsuit for a refund, it is based on Japanese law. As long as it has to be done, it costs a lot of money and time for overseas victims, and as a result, I hear that there are many cases where you give up.


Such acts that undermine the trust of Japanese used car exports and afflict consumers around the world are unacceptable. Currently, JUMVEA is cooperating with the National Police Agency, the International Police Agency, and embassies of various countries to call attention to consumers around the world. Teru), we are making every effort to normalize distribution, such as providing "Jumvea Safe Trade" that realizes safe trading.


Written and edited by: Satoshi Nakao, Chairman of the Automotive Distribution Market Research Institute, a specified non-profit organization.


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